A comprehensive quantitative analysis of conflict escalation patterns using Friedrich Glasl's 9-Stage Model
Analysis Date: December 2025 | Data through: December 2025
Executive Summary
Data Note: After manual review removing false positives and excluding mediator/administrative documentation, the cleaned counts show Elle has 7.5x more Win-Lose escalation messages than the next highest personal conflict user (15 vs. 2) and 10x more verified character attacks (10 vs. 0-1 for others).
Key Finding: Elle escalates conflicts to higher Glasl stages significantly more rapidly and frequently than other community members, consistently bypassing resolution-possible stages and entering conflicts at Stage 4-6 (Win-Lose phase) while others start at Stage 1-3 (Win-Win phase).
Elle's Win-Lose Messages
15
37.5% of verified conflict messages (cleaned)
Verified Character Attacks
10
10x more than any other user
Max Stage Reached
6
Threats/Ultimatums (after cleaning)
Messages Analyzed
125K
Across all Discord channels
What is Glasl's Model?
Friedrich Glasl's 9-stage conflict escalation model maps how conflicts intensify through three phases. Normal conflict resolution happens in Stages 1-3. Escalating beyond Stage 3 bypasses opportunities for dialogue and resolution.
Why Stage-Skipping Matters: When someone bypasses Stages 1-3 and enters conflicts directly at Stages 4-6, they eliminate opportunities for dialogue and resolution. This forces conflicts into the Win-Lose or Lose-Lose phases where damage is harder to repair.
Escalation Propensity: The Core Finding
How Users Enter and Progress Through Conflicts
User
Typical Entry Stage
Escalation Pattern
Resolution Approach
Elle
Stage 4-5 (Coalitions/Attacks)
Stage-skipping: Bypasses Stages 1-3, enters at Win-Lose phase
Maintains high stages; rarely de-escalates
Cloud
Stage 1-3 (Hardening/Debate)
Classic progression: Stage 3 → Stage 5 only after 1 year of failed attempts
Multiple de-escalation attempts before escalating
Wyatt
Stage 1-2 (Hardening/Debate)
Defensive only: Responds to accusations but doesn't initiate escalation
Seeks procedural clarity and de-escalation
Others
Stage 1-3 (Hardening/Debate)
Normal progression: Start low, escalate only when necessary
Resolve at early stages when possible
Stage Distribution Comparison (Cleaned Manual Review)
Critical Pattern: After manual review removing false positives and excluding mediator documentation, Elle has 7.5x more Win-Lose escalation messages than the next highest user in personal conflicts (15 vs. 2).
User
Stage 1-3 (Win-Win)
Stage 4-6 (Win-Lose)
Stage 7-9 (Lose-Lose)
Win-Lose %
Pattern
Elle
25 (62.5%)
15 (37.5%)
0 (0%)
37.5%
Initiating escalation, 10 verified character attacks
Cloud
13 (86.7%)
2 (13.3%)
0 (0%)
13.3%
Defensive only, 1 character attack after year of failed boundaries
Wyatt
7 (70.0%)
3 (30.0%)
0 (0%)
30.0%
Defensive responses, 0 character attacks
coreyfro
4 (57.1%)
3 (42.9%)
0 (0%)
42.9%
Systemic policy focus, not interpersonal conflict
zoda
4 (66.7%)
2 (33.3%)
0 (0%)
33.3%
Mixed: 1 personal conflict + mediator work
Loren
4 (100%)
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
0%
Infrastructure focus, minimal conflict
fineline
3 (100%)
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
0%
Reduced engagement, minimal conflict
Elan*
EXCLUDED: Mediator/administrator role - including creates false equivalence between documentation and personal attacks
*Elan's raw counts (145 Stage 4-6) were almost entirely mediator/administrative documentation, not personal conflict. Cleaned counts show 0 Win-Lose personal conflict messages.
The Stage-Skipping Pattern
Analysis identified 8 recurring escalation "moves" that Elle uses to skip early conflict resolution stages and jump directly to higher escalation levels:
1. Identity Reframing
Stage 2 → 4-5
The Skip: Bypasses debate (Stage 2) by transforming disagreement into identity-based accusation.
Effect: Conflict becomes about character (sexism, ableism) rather than the original issue, forcing it into Win-Lose phase.